Acquired immune deficiency syndrome predictions for England and Wales (1992-97): sensitivity analysis, information, decision.

N. E. Day*, S. M. Gore, Daniela De Angelis

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Some implications of the use of the back-calculation method for estimating future trends in HIV infections and AIDS incidence in England and Wales are explored. "This paper explores in...detail some aspects of the latest projections which have only been hinted at in the report published by the Public Health Laboratory Service in 1993. The value of additional information on the HIV epidemic in discriminating between different, otherwise equally plausible, scenarios is demonstrated. The role of the backcalculation approach in determining whether, and how, the incubation distribution has been affected by increased uptake of pre-AIDS prophylaxis and treatment is discussed." excerpt

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)505-524
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
Volume158
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1995

Bibliographical note

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