Changes in chlamydia prevalence and duration of infection estimated from testing and diagnosis rates in England: a model-based analysis using surveillance data, 2000–15

Joanna Lewis*, Peter White

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Chlamydia screening programmes have been implemented in several countries, but the effects of screening on incidence, prevalence, and reproductive sequelae remain unclear. In England, despite increases in testing with the rollout of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP; 2003–08), prevalence estimated in 10-yearly population-based surveys was similar before (1999–2001) and after (2010–12) the programme. However, the precision of these previous estimates was limited by the low numbers of infections. We aimed to establish annual, rather than 10-yearly, estimates of chlamydia prevalence and infection duration. Methods: In this model-based analysis, we used previously published minimum and maximum estimates and Public Health England data for chlamydia test coverage and diagnoses in men and women aged 15–24 years in England, before, during, and after the scale-up of national chlamydia screening. We used a mechanistic model, which accounted for symptomatic chlamydia testing and asymptomatic screening, to estimate changes in prevalence and average duration of infections for each year. We describe estimates derived from the maximum and minimum numbers of tests and diagnoses as maximum and minimum estimates, regardless of their relative magnitude. Findings: The data included numbers of tests and diagnoses in men and women aged 15–19 years and 20–24 years in England each year from 2000 to 2015. We estimated reductions in prevalence and average infection duration in both sexes once screening was fully implemented. From 2008 to 2010, estimated posterior median prevalence reductions in people aged 15–24 years were 0·68 percentage points (95% credible interval 0·26–1·40; minimum) and 0·66 percentage points (0·25–1·37; maximum) for men and 0·77 percentage points (0·45–1·27) for women (minimum and maximum estimates were the same for women). Over the same time period, mean duration of infection reduced by 75 days (95% credible interval 17–255; minimum) and 74 days (95% credible interval 17–247; maximum) in men and 30 days (22–40) in women. Since 2010, some of the progress made by the NCSP has been reversed, alongside a reduction in testing. Interpretation: Our analysis provides the first evidence for a reduction in chlamydia prevalence in England concurrent with large-scale population testing. It also shows a consistent decline in the average duration of infections, which is a measure of screening effectiveness that is unaffected by behavioural changes. Funding: National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e271-e278
JournalThe Lancet Public Health
Volume3
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2018

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
JL and PJW thank the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology at Imperial College London, in partnership with Public Health England (HPRU-2012–10080) for funding. PJW also thanks the Medical Research Council (MR/K010174/1) for funding. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK Department of Health, MRC, National Health Service, NIHR, or Public Health England.

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