Estimating the tuberculosis burden in resource-limited countries: A capture-recapture study in Yemen

A. Bassili*, A. Al-Hammadi, A. Al-Absi, P. Glaziou, A. Seita, Ibrahim Abubakar, A. L. Bierrenbach, N. A. Van Hest

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)


BACKGROUND: The lack of applicable populationbased methods to measure tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates directly at country level emphasises the global need to generate robust TB surveillance data to ascertain trends in disease burden and to assess the performance of TB control programmes in the context of the United Nations Millenium Development Goals and World Health Organization targets for TB control. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of TB cases (all forms) and sputum smear-positive disease, and the level of under-reporting of TB in Yemen in 2010. METHODS: Record-linkage and three-source capturerecapture analysis of data collected through active prospective longitudinal surveillance within the public and private non-National Tuberculosis Programme sector in twelve Yemeni governorates, selected by stratified cluster random sampling. RESULTS: For all TB cases, the estimated ratio of notified to incident cases and completeness of case ascertainment after record linkage, i.e., the ratio of detected to incident cases, was respectively 71% (95%CI 64 -80) and 75% (95%CI 68-85). For sputum smear-positive TB cases, these ratios were respectively 67% (95%CI 58- 75) and 76% (95%CI 66-84). CONCLUSION: We estimate that there were 13 082 (95%CI 11 610-14 513) TB cases in Yemen in 2010. Under-reporting of TB in Yemen is estimated at 29% (95%CI 20-36).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)456-461
Number of pages6
JournalInternational Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2013

Bibliographical note

Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.


  • Capture-recapture analysis
  • Record linkage
  • Resource-limited
  • Surveillance
  • Tuberculosis


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