Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: Piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes

Helen Green, Andre Charlett, J. Moran-Gilad, D. Fleming, H. Durnall, D. R. Thomas, S. Cottrell, B. Smyth, C. Kearns, A. J. Reynolds, Gillian Smith, Alex Elliot, Joanna Ellis, Maria Zambon, J. M. Watson, J. Mcmenamin, Richard Pebody*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-12
Number of pages12
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume143
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jan 2015

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Cambridge University Press 2014.

Copyright:
Copyright 2014 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Keywords

  • Epidemiology
  • United Kingdom
  • influenza
  • surveillance
  • threshold

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