Land use regression modeling to estimate historic (1962-1991) concentrations of black smoke and sulfur dioxide for Great Britain

John Gulliver*, Chloe Morris, Kayoung Lee, Danielle Vienneau, David Briggs, Anna Hansell

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

72 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Land-use regression modeling was used to develop maps of annual average black smoke (BS) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations in 1962, 1971, 1981, and 1991 for Great Britain on a 1 km grid for use in epidemiological studies. Models were developed in a GIS using data on land cover, the road network, and population, summarized within circular buffers around air pollution monitoring sites, together with altitude and coordinates of monitoring sites to consider global trend surfaces. Models were developed against the log-normal (LN) concentration, yielding R2 values of 0.68 (n = 534), 0.68 (n = 767), 0.41 (n = 771), and 0.39 (n = 155) for BS and 0.61 (n = 482), 0.65 (n = 733), 0.38 (n = 756), and 0.24 (n = 153) for SO2 in 1962, 1971, 1981, and 1991, respectively. Model evaluation was undertaken using concentrations at an independent set of monitoring sites. For BS, values of R2 were 0.56 (n = 133), 0.41 (n = 191), 0.38 (n = 193), and 0.34 (n = 37), and for SO2 values of R2 were 0.71 (n = 121), 0.57 (n = 183), 0.26 (n = 189), and 0.31 (n = 38) for 1962, 1971, 1981, and 1991, respectively. Models slightly underpredicted (fractional bias: 0∼-0.1) monitored concentrations of both pollutants for all years. This is the first study to produce historic concentration maps at a national level going back to the 1960s.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3526-3532
Number of pages7
JournalEnvironmental Science and Technology
Volume45
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Apr 2011
Externally publishedYes

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