Background: In Japan, the current influenza vaccination programme is targeting older individuals. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza are likely to be mainly driven by children. In this study, we consider the most cost-effective target age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Japan.
Methods: We constructed a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with data from the 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons in Japan. Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for parameter estimation. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from public health care payer's perspective.
Results: A scenario targeting children under 15 was expected to reduce the number of cases 6,382,345 compared to the current strategy. A scenario targeting elderly population (age over 49 years) was expected to reduce the number of cases 693,206. The children targeted scenario demonstrated negative ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) value. On the other hand, elderly targeted scenario demonstrated higher ICER value than the willingness to pay (50,000 USD/QALY).
Conclusions: A vaccination programme which targets children under 15 is predicted to have much larger epidemiological impact than those targeting elderly.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information: This research was funded by JSPS KAKENHI, Grant number 18K1736908. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
MB thanks the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (grant MR/R015600/1) and the UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Modelling Methodology (Imperial College London) and Immunization (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) (grant HPRU-2012?10080) for funding. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the MRC, the UK National Health Service, the UK National Institute for Health Research, the UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department of Health, or Public Health England.
Open Access: No Open Access licence.
Publisher Copyright:© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation: Shinya Tsuzuki, Marc Baguelin, Richard Pebody, Edwin van Leeuwen,
Modelling the optimal target age group for seasonal influenza vaccination in Japan, Vaccine, Volume 38, Issue 4, 2020, Pages 752-762, ISSN 0264-410X,
- Cost-effectiveness analysis
- Mathematical model
- Vaccination policy