Probalistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis of the dose calculations module in the COSYMA package

John Harrison, J. Boardman, J. A. Jones, A. Khursheed, B. C.P. Kraan, A. W. Phipps

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis of the dose calculation module of the COSYMA accident consequence assessment code has been undertaken, involving the following steps: (1) Expert judgement techniques were applied to assess uncertainties in measurable parameters determining external and internal doses. (2) The data obtained were used to calculate distributions on the dose quantifies required as code input parameters. (3) The effect of uncertainties in dose quantities was analysed for a range of COSYMA end points, including the extent of countermeasures and incidences of early and late health effects, and the most important uncertainties were identified for inclusion in an overall uncertainty analysis of COSYMA. Parameters identified as making the largest contributions to uncertainty included external doses and location factors, residence times of materials on skin, breathing rates, and respiratory tract deposition and retention parameters, for the extent of countermeasures and early health effects, and caesium and iodine retention parameters for late effects.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)339-344
Number of pages6
JournalRadiation Protection Dosimetry
Volume90
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2000

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