Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

S. J. Leadbetter*, S. Andronopoulos, Peter Bedwell, K. Chevalier-Jabet, G. Geertsema, F. Gering, T. Hamburger, A. R. Jones, H. Klein, I. Korsakissok, A. Mathieu, T. Pázmándi, R. Périllat, Cs Rudas, A. Sogachev, P. Szántó, J. M. Tomas, C. Twenhöfel, H. De Vries, J. Wellings

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)S51-S55
JournalRadioprotection
Volume55
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Acknowledgement. The work described in this paper was conducted within the CONFIDENCE project which was part of the CONCERT project. This project has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014– 2018 under grant agreement No. 662287.

Publisher Copyright:
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020.

Keywords

  • Atmospheric dispersion model
  • CONFIDENCE
  • Ensemble simulation
  • Source terms
  • Uncertainty

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