The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom

Azra Ghani, Marc Baguelin, Jamie Griffin, Stefan Flasche, Albert Jan Van Hoek, Simon Cauchemez, Christl Donnelly, Chris Robertson, Michael White, James Truscott, Christophe Fraser, Tini Garske, Peter White, Stephen Leach, Ian Hall, Helen Jenkins, Neil Ferguson*, Ben Cooper

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

81 Citations (Scopus)


We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

Original languageEnglish
Article numberecurrents.RRN1130
JournalPLoS Currents
Issue numberJUN
Publication statusPublished - 2010


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