Many countries are considering vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV). However, the long-term impact of vaccination is difficult to predict due to uncertainty about the prevalence of HPV infection, pattern of sexual partnerships, progression of cervical neoplasias, accuracy of screening as well as the duration of infectiousness and immunity. Dynamic models of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission were developed to describe the infection spread and development of cervical neoplasia, cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma) and anogenital warts. Using different combinations of assumptions, 9900 scenarios were created. Each scenario was then fitted to epidemiological data and the best-fitting scenarios used to predict the impact of vaccination. Results suggest that vaccinating 12-year-old girls at 80% coverage will result in a 38-82% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and 44-100% reduction in anogenital warts incidence after 60 years of an ongoing vaccination programme if vaccine protection lasts 20 years on average. The marginal benefit of vaccinating boys depends on the degree of protection achieved by vaccinating girls.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
We thank Kate Soldan and Liz Miller for insightful comments and help throughout this process, and the panel of referees who commented on an earlier version of this work. This work was funded by grants from the Department of Health Policy Research Programme reference numbers DOH 039/0030 and DOH 0039/031. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
- Human papillomavirus
- Mathematical modelling